Thursday, 14 January 2016

A mock S-REIT portfolio (2)

About one month ago, I created a mock basket of S-REIT portfolio. Let's see how these 'kembings' (every week I learn new terms from SMOL) have fared through Nov and Dec...


Market $ Entry $ * div yield% Shares Amount
Reits
Ascendas Hosp Trust 0.73 6.90 4800 $3,504
First Reit - health 1.17 7.00 2600 $3,029
CDL hosp 1.30 7.30 2300 $2,979
Ascott hosp 1.13 7.50 2500 $2,813
Mapletree logistics 0.98 7.60 2800 $2,744
Lippomall 0.30 10.70 10000 $2,950
Starhill global 0.74 7.10 3000 $2,205
Frasers Centrepoint 1.86 6.20 1600 $2,976
Ireit 0.66 9.69 4000 $2,640
CapitaRetailChina 1.40 1.335 7.50 3000 $4,005
0.982778 7.75 $29,844
*16/01/16 - Edited dividend yield according to market$. P/B and EV/EBIT removed. You could refer here for a gauge.

The reits in total have dropped a mere 0.7%. Looks like they are a bunch of resilient kembings against the bear uh. Let's do a little more probing.

As you can see the winner of the lot is kembing no 1 Ascendas-h! Why?
You might want to read: http://www.sreitinvestmentblog.sg/2015/12/analysis-of-ascendas-hospitality-trust.html
Rainbow sheep strange but,cool!
Let's see who has more wool!
Source: http://www.jigidi.com/puzzle.php?id=WV71O1ZI

CapitalRetailChina, on the other hand, was around $1.48-$1.50 then (sorry missed out market$ in the earlier chart) and has suffered the biggest drop. That was quite expected. I have offloaded partially to see if can buy back at a lower price later. (Buy volume must have been poor, because lehlong also nobody want to buy my full load.)



Lippomall Indonesia feels a bit shaky (https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/lmir-trust-considers-exercising-put-042623162.html, http://www.lmir-trust.com/newsroom.html). If it remains so, I would take it out of the basket and replace with another reit of better value.

STI has dropped from 2900 to current 2644.57 (-8.8% and we know very well which are the black sheep shedding fur). Meh...

***

Earlier on last year I was quite anticipative of a bear market. I was sitting on my war chest which sits pathetically in the banks earning miserly interest (80% cash, 20% vested). Unfortunately, I chose to feed some of them to some black sheep when the bear decided to attack (boohooo my poor sheep).

It's like a complex feeling of being excited to see the bear but at the same time it struck fear in me.

In the event of poor economic growth, all stocks would suffer (reits included) so don't get over-complacent with them. In bad times you may see that Price/NAV remains about the same as previously because the net asset value of reits may drop. For those which prices drop but NAV remains the same in bad times, those would be good deals.

"But remember that Reits, unlike shares, pay out most of the income they get. When things go wrong (higher borrowing costs, lower rents), payouts suffer. No buffer, unlike companies dividends. In the worse case, can end up having to subscribe to rights issues because Reits don’t have reserves to draw on in hard times."
***

2 comments:

  1. Rainbow girl,

    Oh dear, I've been a bad influence.

    Bei kambing is used to describe a noob, newbie, white paper - someone who believes what others say without verification for himself/herself.

    But then, I like your interpretation!

    See yourself as a shepherd.

    If you flock is multiplying and healthy, you're a good shepherd :)

    If they are sickly and dwindling in numbers, well...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I see... so putting it into the correct context is eg. "SMOL, don't lead the Bei Kambing astray!" haha.

      Ya we (investors) are like shepherds - afraid of bears and wolves. Tho I believe some shepherds have shrewd ways to deal with them.

      Delete

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