Saturday, 30 December 2017

7 years of blogging - flashbacks

Blogging over the past years has been a therapeutic hobby to me. It helped me to settle my ever-whirling thoughts, forced me to research whenever I am confused, made me reflect upon my actions and served as my mark of investment experiences over the years.

7 years may seem a moderately long period, I have given up on a few other blogs but forged on for this one. Having blogged only very occasionally in the first few years (I didn't brush up on my investment skills and knowledge at an exponential rate regretfully, looking back in the time of yr 2010-2013 *shake head*), it's no wonder that I have yet to receive the blogging's 'long service award' of the Google ad earnings.

Sad to say blogging failed to be an alternative sustainable income source for me (yes, I can 'sumpah' there's not a single sponsored blog post here). Getting income from blogging is not easy, time and effort plus I do not want to blog for the sake of money or fighting for readership - that will kind of take the fun out of blogging. As for content creation, I like to keep my contents short-and-sweet and to the point. Therefore, if you are noob in investment or don't understand some technical terms, please look elsewhere - read Investopedia.


Blogging - my style is simply 随心所欲。


A quick flashbacks here on some posts here that remind myself on how to be a better investor / trader...


1) How many times have I caught the falling knife?

My losers stock

Waiting for stabilization

(Ooh mr market, look what you made me do...)
Very early on in my blog I already told myself not to catch a falling knife but when impulsiveness rules, it became history...


2) Didn't know how to buy slowly and sell slowly

If only I could turn back time

Lessons from 2015

Quite a number of shares I ever owned was sold too early before huge gains appear (Comfort Delgro, DBS, Capitaretail China, Keppel, CDL). As for buying too early, see above on catching falling knife.

So maybe procrastination is not all that bad huh? In some of my selling decisions I actually procrastinated. But for manual stop loss, shouldn't procrastinate.

Another important point to note - position sizing is very important when executing any buy/sell.


3) Many missed opportunities (Also read my post on Opportunity Costs)

Keppel Corp - signs of oversold?

Blue chips still in red sea

If only I could turn back time II

(真是个胆小鬼, 呜呜。。。 TT)


All the above contributed to my fine-tuning of MIND, MONEY and METHOD.

What I am interested to explore next year is on hedging and warrants trading. I will blog about them when I learnt more. For a start, SGX has got some brilliant explanatory videos hosted on youtube with cute animations (I like!), click here to view them.


2017 has been a good bull run year of the stock market if you have picked the right stocks. My total portfolio gained a modest 12% on paper and yielded dividends similar to last year.



Hope the coming year will bring joy, peace and happiness (more $ as bonus). 
Happy 2018!

----
Update 4th Jan 2018

This year's bull has strong legs from the start! 2% gain in a week. :)




* ThaiBev only watch, not vested.

Sunday, 24 December 2017

My story of Aztech and Bakertech II

I have talked about my Aztech story in the previous post, now let's move on to the second story, which is BakerTech. The stock is still trading on SGX.


2. The Baker Technology story


Why I invested in it?

It's got an attractive dividend yield for its share price and the oil industry was doing very well back then in year 2010. I recalled there was a special dividend in 2013 of $0.085 per share.

If you searched around, quite a few finance bloggers / sites did cheer-leading for this stock till year 2014, which further boosted my conviction that this share will do well. Imagine those who bought in early 2014...


What happened?

After the oil crash in year 2015, its share price only seen the downward spiral, due to impacted earnings. This decline has not seen reversal to date.

(I missed subscribing to its warrants issue offer of 2 for 5 @ SGD 0.01 in year 2012 when its share price was still ok then.)




In May 2016, it consolidated its shares at 5-for-1 due to the minimum trading price requirement imposed by SGX (price was below $0.20).

I believed its ticker has changed to BTP that time but I am not sure why the chart for BTP can date back to way before consolidation time. Was its chart plotted from back-extrapolation, can someone enlighten?



Outcome

I divested my shares before the consolidation, sold price was at $0.183. The decision was made as I saw no signs of price trend reversal. That amounted to more than 50% loss in capital.
It's dividends over the previous years have kind of made up for part of the loses (some panadol better than none).

--

I won't give you my conclusions to the stories here so that you can draw your own conclusions. Do you have your own investment stories too?

Merry X'mas everyone! :)





Follow the wind, borrow its strength but don't fall asleep while sailing. Know where we are heading and when the thunderstorm comes remember to dock. Because we are just sailing on small boats. Don't blindly follow the Titanic!
***

Saturday, 23 December 2017

My sad story of Aztech and Bakertech I

Today I am in a story-telling mood and decided to share my investment story of few years back to remind myself and young investors out there to be more prudent. In what way? You shall find out.



1. The Aztech story


Why I invested in Aztech?

Cos I chanced upon some juicy analysis post from a veteran finance blogger at that time on how wonderful are the company's producing and how good the potential earning of the company's going to be, why he chose to invest etc. So I decided to invest in the shares in year 2010.


What happened?

The share price of Aztech dropped over the years as business was not going well and its dividends had been negligible (no 'panadol' to ease my headache). There was a period when I thought that its earning was recovering (I recalled there was an article by Songsinger-ley Fool about it being a small conglomerate with good diversification) and bought in some more at $0.13.

#Diversification or Diworsification?

Foolish me indeed! That is epic of what we call 'throwing good money after bad money'.

Subsequently, the company underwent a price consolidation (10-for-1 in Mar 2015) but instead of sustaining, it's stock price just saw more room for plunge. Ticker name changed to AVZ.


Outcome

It got mandated to delist from SGX at the beginning of this year. I have cut my loses completely, albeit too late, in year 2015 and year 2016 at the price of $0.655 and $0.43 respectively. Average loss was about 70% from total purchase price.

Just now I happened to chance upon this in a forum - Help! Aztech Group



To be continued... My sad story of Aztech and Bakertech II

***

Oppo phone - quick tips on deleting photos

Looking to clear your stash of old images that are taking up way too much space in your Oppo android phone? Here I'll show you how to do that in less than a minute, at your finger tips (literally).


Quick select multiple photos

  1. Go to Files > Photos
  2. Click Edit
  3. Browse to images of your desired dates which you wish to delete
  4. Drag your finger tip along the ticks on the right side, from photo 1 to photo X (see illustration below)
  5. You will see the selection of photos indicated by the highlighted ticks
  6. Next, just click on the Delete button below and you are done!





Quick delete individual photo

  1. Go to Files > Photos
  2. DON'T click Edit, DON'T click on photo
  3. Swipe your finger from right to left on that particular photo file which you want to delete (see illustration below)
  4. Click the red delete button that shows up on the right
  5. (You can use this same trick to quick delete SMSes)


No need to select your images one by one, just do it the fuss-free way. Hope you find this short article useful! :)

Friday, 15 December 2017

Goal setting - Ma Yun's words of wisdom

Focus is essential for business. When laying down the strategic goals for your business, you must never exceed three. Once you’ve exceeded three, you won’t be able to remember them, and neither will your workers. When you set down goals each year, just determine the three most important, and cut out the fourth."

In whatever we do, whether it is investing or carving out a niche in something, we should never lose our focus by trying to achieve too many things at a time - either we will forget or we will forgo. 
Read also: A note on entrepreneurship


Another piece of Ma Yun's advice for start-ups, but I think it's also applicable to whatever we chose to embark on -
"the first is what you want to do, the second is how to do it, the third is how long to do it for.”

To work out finer details, we can dive into SMART goal setting when the above are thought through.



And last but not least -
"You cannot unify everyone’s thoughts, but you can unify them with a common goal."
[Source: https://vulcanpost.com/5407/jack-ma-success/

Yeah, instead of trying to get employees to believe in you, get them to believe that they can do it! They can achieve goal XYZ for bigger good when they work together. (And that might requires the higher level skill of brainwashing motivation hehe...)



--
If you extrapolate some of the above wisdom on goal setting to your personal finance management, what goals would you set?



PS:

Investors have goals... Hey, traders have goals too (albeit being short-term ones). Target entry price, target sell price, stop-loss points... all that mini-goals to help achieve the ultimate bigger goal of making money from the market.

:)

Sunday, 10 December 2017

Ofo free bike ride

I had a 20-minute exercise last night by cycling home as the buses were off service (all because of the JE-red line early closure and I waited 20 mins for the last train! Pfft).


I have not rode for over 3 years and for a third of the journey I was wrestling with the bike. >.<
The only good thing is that ride was foc as OFO is now having a month-long promotion.

Maybe next weekend I shall exercise again on OFO.
Ok, definitely not at night. Not nice to be sweaty and sleepy when home.

----

Speaking of deals, Grab's reward points expire twice a year. So quickly redeem them before those expiring end of this year turn worthless.

***

Thursday, 7 December 2017

If only I could turn back time - II

If only I could turn back time

I would have invested in...

1. Apple (AAPL)?




2. Tencent Holdings (0700.HK)?




3. Bitcoin?




Ya, in my craziest dream.

Bitcoin looks like it's shooting for the moon. Here's a good read on Understanding the Cryptocurrency Boom.


Image result for pooh balloon float
"Would their prices go up, up and away?"


Tuesday, 5 December 2017

Why Yahoo Finance rocks

Because I can draw data from long long time ago... It dates all the way back to 1996, wow!



----

I am also using the Yahoo Finance App on my mobile which allows me to track my portfolio with ease. You can add stock symbols by simply pressing on the '+ Add symbol', add your shares holding by pressing 'Add' under the Shares column after adding symbols and also create multiple watchlists. :)

***

Words of LIFE wisdom



Before you speak, listen. 

Before you write, think. 

Before you spend, earn. 

Before you invest, investigate. 

Before you criticize, wait. 

Before you pray, forgive. 

Before you quit, try. 

Before you retire, save. 

Before you die, give.” 



- William Arthur Ward

Sunday, 26 November 2017

New-generation businesses

"The world’s largest taxi firm, Uber, owns no cars. The world’s most popular media company, Facebook, creates no content. The world’s most valuable retailer, Alibaba, carries no stock. And the world’s largest accommodation provider, Airbnb, owns no property. Something big is going on."

"But business relationships do not stay stable, particularly if there are huge profits involved. So now we would see the battle of the existing interfaces, with each extending beyond their initial footprint to try to win more territory. So Facebook goes into news, Twitter into television and so on. And because they can be so profitable we will see more and more challenger interfaces, each trying to find some way to get their icon on to your mobile phone or iPad."



The above are taken from an article published in 2015. Today we can see evidently how these 'new generation' intermediary companies have changed the way we used to do things - in a relatively short time-span, and have became an integral part of our life. From a business perspective, I am intrigued with keywords of 'not owning'. These successful businesses rode on technology (connectivity and interfaces), required relatively low start-up cost and cannot be truly valued based on their hard assets. Yet they are generating extraordinary amount of profits compared to traditional businesses of similar capitalization.

From investors' perspective, how many of us were astute enough to recognize values in these businesses at their infancy? We only came to recognize the brands and values in their services when the media or our friends started talking about them. E.g who knows iPhone will become the big 'in' thing when it first launched 10 years ago (2007), bought Apple's shares and held them till today?


What's changing for the fin sector?

"A SURVEY by management consultancy Bain & Co highlights the inroads that big established technology giants could make on turf traditionally occupied by retail banks.


While many traditional retail banks see financial technology (fintech) firms as the primary disruptors to banking, said Bain, "it seems like the established technology players have emerged as the bigger, more immediate threat to retail banking."

On the other hand, large technology firms have the advantage as they are already accessible to most - which put them in a better position to extend their corporate brands into banking, he added. "Many also already sell payment services, credit cards and loans, so it's plausible they will offer a suite of retail banking services in the near future." "


Source: http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/technology/singapore-consumers-very-open-to-buying-financial-products-from-big-tech-firms-bain-study

Besides fintech firms, other familiar brands like Grab are also trying to fight on the same turf by extending their Grabpay for use at other merchants. Personally, I do not like having my money 'locked up' in multiple pay-portals e.g grabpay, ezlink, kopitiam card, cash card etc, so I will only top up when the values run low to near zero. Other cashless payment options are emerging faster than I can catch on - Android pay, Paylah, PayNow, DASH, mwallet. Since I have not tried any of those, I cannot comment on how much more convenience they offer over conventional credit cards and the perks of use.

As for how much impact that would have on the retail banks down the road and who shall be the next giant of cashless service - it awaits to be seen.



Online shopping

When the above businesses collaborate, you can see their effect on the online shopping wave like mentioned here.

Speaking of 'not owning', here are some of the popular shopping portals that own no goods - eBay, Amazon, Taobao, Lazada, Qoo10 and Shopee. It is all about UI friendliness over merchandising, range of brands and prices over specialty selling.

Being price-conscious, I like comparing then buying from whichever site that gives me a better deal (and better still if there is promo code!) in the comfort of my home. However, online shopping may not be all-satisfying when you need an item urgently, care about the physical 'feel' or when the hue matters.


Healthcare on the go - trending and 'close to my heart'

I graduated from and work in the healthcare sector. So the merger of healthcare, technology and now even with e-commerce is something worth a closer look. I believe its emergence will very much fall in line with the need of aging population and preventative healthcare.

About the up and rising AliHealth in China:

Alibaba Health Information Technology Limited (the “Company”) and its subsidiaries (the “Group”) have been committed to developing Internet technology and establishing a service ecology platform to provide industry partners with technical capabilities such as big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence and Internet of Things, as well as service capabilities such as operational, quality control and customer service capabilities. Now, the Company concentrates on developing pharmaceutical e-commerce, product tracking system services, intelligent medicine, and health management businesses.

Source: http://www.gsk-china.com/en-gb/media/press-releases/2017/gsk-china-partners-with-ali-health-to-launch-innovative-online-service-platform-to-improve-adult-vaccination-consultation-experience/

---

In conclusion, the similarity in all the above booming new-generation businesses is that they are offering consumers trustworthy services at greater convenience than traditional businesses. Who knows perhaps in the near future, we would see a new 'Apple' introducing AI, driver-less hover cars and robots to our daily life.

***

Recommended reading: Growth Stock.

Saturday, 25 November 2017

If only I could turn back time


I would stay...

1. Keppel Corp (sold one-third of holdings with loss @ $6.19)
Bought in Aug 2015 @ $7.50
Current $7.75
(Missed upside 25%^)

2. CDL Hospitality Trust (sold with no gain)
Bought in Apr 2016 @ $1.40
Current $1.64
(Missed upside 17%)

3. DBS (sold with gain at $20.55)
Bought in Mar 2016 @ $15.35
Current $25
(Missed upside 21.6%)

^Missed upside is calculated by the difference in current price and sold price / sold price.


The Thank-God-I-stay stocks:
1. OCBC
2. Genting Singapore

------

Stop loss, Cut loss, Take profit, inaction all test our
MENTAL STRENGTH, SKILL and PATIENCE.

-------

Why did I sell those stocks away even though I know they have good fundamentals?

I had a trader mind-set then and thought I could catch a short-term correction to buy back at a lower price than when I sold. Alas, Mr market didn't give me that opportunity and just ramped on.

Saturday, 18 November 2017

What is keeping you going in your work?

    1. Money?

    2. Sense of Purpose (aka 使命感)?

    3. Your ikigai (which encompasses also point 2)




    For pondering.


    If you are interested (external links): 

    The surprising truth about what motivates us



    ***

    Sunday, 12 November 2017

    Money Management plus Method - I

    My general guide for assets allocation in equity relative to STI:

    ST index Tier% Equity holding %
    above 3600 90 <10 td="">
    3400 80 20
    3200 7030
    3000 60 40
    2800 50 50
    2600 40 60
    2400 30 70
    2200 20 80
    2000 10 90
    1800 10 90
    below1600 10

    This is an 'off-loading' concept - meaning that when the stock market gets overheated, you retrieve back part of your capital as war chest and wait for suitable opportunities, eg. when STI drops, to build your position again in equity.

    (We can use in conjunction with Technical Analysis rather than blindly 'catching falling knife' when there is a market downturn.)

    -----------------------

    Here are a couple of methods of Asset Allocation:

    1. Strategic asset allocation calls for setting target allocations and then periodically re-balancing the portfolio back to those targets as investment returns skew the original asset allocation percentages. The concept is akin to a "buy and hold" strategy, rather than an active trading approach.
    2. Tactical asset allocation (TAA) is a dynamic investment strategy that actively adjusts a portfolio's asset allocation. The goal of a TAA strategy is to improve the risk-adjusted returns of passive management investing.
    There are more, if you are interested... click here https://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/07/allocate_assets.asp
    or get your hands on 'The little book that saves your assets' by David M. Darst.

    I discovered an interesting blog here which also briefly mentioned the concepts.

    Now there's Money, there's Method. The only big obstacle to cross is Mind.

    ***

    Book review: High returns from Low risk

    Image result for high returns from low risk


    Learning points from this book:
    • In the long-run (the author used data of US traded stocks over 86 years), low-volatility stocks are shown to give a higher return.
    • Comparing portfolios of varying volatility - as volatility increased from 13% to about 20%, compounded return increased. As the volatility increased further beyond 25%, compounded return declined.
    • How to select the right low-volatility stocks? Look at
      • Beta less than 1
      • the stock's income yield and
      • momentum (price trend)
    • People who underreact to news when it comes in gradually run the risk of being 'boiled' (boiling frog syndrome).
    • The selection of low-volatility stocks can be applied to other investment vehicles as well e.g bonds. 
    • Hold if the above three points still hold true while reviewing your portfolio.

    ***

    A fairly simple to read book, with simple concepts and no 'cheem' investment theories. The back chapters talked about some zen which I fell asleep reading.

    Thursday, 19 October 2017

    C52 Comfort Delgro - downtrend continues

    Start of downtrend

    Still no sign of reversal...



    Speaking those who buy-and-hold versus those who chased the market. 
    Who's the winner?


    Ah... the good ol' days.


    *Disclaimer: I have no vested interest in C52 currently.

    Wednesday, 18 October 2017

    Richdad's cashflow game

    My friend introduced me to the richdad's cashflow game which can be played online for free (click here to play). I think it's a great beginner learning tool to introduce kids (or anyone else lacking in financial literacy) to grasp certain concepts of cash-flow and investing.


    My takeaways from the game


    1. Clear your debts first. (A good read here.)

    2. You don't have to act on every opportunity

    3. Calculate the yield % on investments that give passive income before investing

    4. Investing needs both elements of skill and luck

    5. Buy low, sell high (patience, patience... duh)

    6. More money = more investment opportunities = higher returns

    7. Life likes to throw you the unexpected when you least expect it

    8. Even if you have achieved financial freedom, you might not necessarily get to achieve your dream

    ***

    Friday, 13 October 2017

    When to sell in a bull market?

    “Bull markets are born in pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria (exhilaration). The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.”


    Saturday, 7 October 2017

    Blockchain: Massively Simplified

    All that hype about bitcoins and block-chain led me to wonder what am I missing out here.
    Ok... so bitcoin is a cryptocurrency (with no practical usage at this point in time but price is inflating like mad balloon??). Then what is blockchain about?





    Just wondering - if blockchain one day became hackable, wouldn't that spell hell?

    ADVANC's intention to acquire stake in Singtel

    Did I read wrong?

    "Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited (SET:ADVANC) signed a non-binding and conditional letter of intent to acquire 56.2% stake in Singapore Telecommunications Limited (SGX:Z74) from Singapore Telecommunications Limited (SGX:Z74) and DTV Service Company Limited for THB 2.6 billion on September 5, 2017. The shares will be acquired at a preliminary indicative price of THB 7.8 per share which is subject to further negotiations and/or due diligence. The transaction is subject to satisfaction in the due diligence result, approval from the Board of Directors and the approval from the shareholders of Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited, Thaicom Public Company Limited and Singapore Telecommunication Limited"
    [Source: SGX]


    2.6 billion (2600 millions) THB is only about SGD 106 millions.

    I wonder how they came up and justify with such low figure in the letter of intent for acquisition. Or maybe there's some missing link here?
    Baffled.

    The "chionging" bull

    S&P500 now at 254https://stocks.cafe/stock/summary/S27?basicchart=0&days=1260&exchange=XSES

    Chiong, chiong, chiong.
    Good for those who bought and huat, huat, huat.

    ---
    STI now at 3291.

    Image result for cute bull chart image stock
    Courtesy of iStock

    Friday, 6 October 2017

    Who's investment style (武林秘籍) do you follow?

    Introducing the famous...


    Short-term Traders

    Ricardo, Jesse Livermore, George Soros, Steinhardt
    --------------------------

    Value Investors

    Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett

    ----------------------
    Growth Investors

    Philips Fisher, Rowe Price, Peter Lynch

    ---------------------Passive /Index Investor

    John Bogle (founder of Vanguard)

    -------------------------

    Or how about... mixed martial arts?

    :) I am a taker for MMA. 
    黑猫白猫🐱 ,会捉老鼠就是好猫。

    Apps for little rewards in Singapore

    In addition to using credit cards or debit card in spending to get 'rewards', here are 2 other avenues that require minimal efforts to get little rewards.



    As they worked via app, it is really convenient. You only need to remember to scan within the same day to get the points. :)


    1) CapitaStar$

    If you stay or work near any Capital mall, this would be a good app to have (you can also get bonus Star$ for using the app the first time). Simply spend a minimum of $20 or more in a single receipt. Just a little tip on scanning or taking photo of your receipt - do ensure that the date of transaction, transaction number, total transaction cost and shop address are clearly shown. Otherwise, your receipt will get rejected. Also, remember to scan in on the day itself or on the next day of purchase to be eligible.

    Good news for Passion Card member, you can also link up your account to your star$ account to earn 1.5x Star$ (normally is 5 star$ awarded with every 1 dollar spent).

    You can also convert the star$ to Tap-for-more points (11 to 1). However, saving enough star$ to get voucher is more 'hua suan' because 5000 star$ can get you a $5 capitamall voucher versus 150 points (1650 star$) for offset of $1.

    Remember to redeem before expiry at year end!


    2) Healthy 365

    This app by Health Promotion Board works similarly to CapitaStar. Just that you scan the QR code on the receipt to redeem Healthpoints (till 31 Oct 2017) instead of star$. Click here for full t&c.

    Upon first use, you can get bonus Healthpoints. So it is really easy to get enough points to redeem say an NTUC $5 voucher.

    Participating merchants are selected food courts, hawker centre, restaurant (even Mcdonald's), coffeeshop, drink kiosk (like Mr Bean) convenient stores and supermarkets.

    All you have to do is look out for and purchase food, drinks or products with the healthier choice logo to earn the points.


    3) ActivSG

    Government sponsored all Singaporeans $100 since the year before to encourage more physical activity and sports engagement. If you have not finished utilizing your credit, do purchase something using the app by end of this year to qualify for carry forward of the credit to next year. If not, they will expire on 31st December.

    And a side note for those who travel by BMW (bus, mrt, walk), you can participate in the Travel Smart Reward program to earn some points and rebate when you travel during off peak periods with your ezlink card.

    --
    Know of any other apps that reward you for your daily activities? Please share!

    Thursday, 5 October 2017

    Good lobang - DBS Visa Debit Card



    https://www.dbs.com.sg/personal/cards/debit-cards/dbs-visa-debit?pid=sg-dbs-vanity-cards-dbs-visa-debit
    Image result for dbs visa debit card


    Highlights:
    • From now till 31st December 2017, accumulate a foreign currency spend of S$1,500 on DBS Visa Debit Card and get S$50 Cashback.
    • Get S$10 Cashback when you charge S$200 to your new DBS Visa Debit Card within the first month.
    • Get 5% cashback when you pay using Visa payWave, through your card, Apple Pay, Samsung Pay or Android Pay. Keep your cash withdrawals to three times or less and up to S$400 every month.

    The deal's a bit sweeter than the Standard Chartered Unlimited Cash Back credit card which I have just gotten. (However, SC's sign up cash back is damn good.)



    ---------------------

    The best decision I made today is to bring in my clothes, even though it was bright and sunny before I left house. 天有不测风云。It started raining cats and dogs when I was walking home. 

    Moral of the story:
    Make hay while it shines. Just remember to take profits off the table before sky turns dark (especially if you aren't very diligent in monitoring the weather).

    Blue-black chips' 2 years flash back

    A quick recall to my old blog post Blue Chips in Red Sea, I have done another mini simulation here. (Got nothing much to do in my short break before starting new work hehe.)

    This was the list I put up in Sep 2015 -


    Fast forward 2 years...

    Which are the 'blue-black chips'?



    Most of the chips managed to rebound quite a bit, except Noble Group and a handful of the black sheep. CityDev, Jardine, Genting and GLP soared.
    [Apologies for missing out Capitaland that time.]


    Have you made the right choices 2 years back?

    :)

    --
    Let's take a look at how the 'blue-black chips' dividends are doing.

    ComfortDelgro - Yield has increased YOY. Recent dividend payout in August was $0.0435. As for how its dividends would keep up in future I find it hard to say since it has quite a few sub business units to keep it afloat while Uber and Grab grabbed its taxi market share. At least one can take comfort in its dividends. No pun intended.

    HPH Trust - Dividends have been declining since its crazy high in year 2012. Thus, it makes a poor dividend play stock. And as we thought Trust is about returns through payouts... cough cough.

    M1 - As we can see, the telcos weren't doing too well in this bull run. Only Singtel managed to withhold the storm well (smart move to IPO Netlink trust). M1's dividends dropped significantly this year. With about a 40% drop in its dividend from past average, it's no surprise that there's a 40% drop in share price.

    SPH - The past high dividends of $0.07 and $0.08 are also suffering a drop to $0.06 and $0.03. That is no doubt tied in with its earnings. When I started investing 7 years back, my friend bought SPH and I was chiding myself for not doing so. Looks like time changed - what seemed cheap 7 years ago still cheap now? Think.

    Starhub - This is one stock that I have been watching due to its consistent dividend of $0.05. I wanted to type '10 years no change' then paused... cos I realised in 2007 it was $0.04. Do you feel the déjà vu? 
    Singtel's dividends also see no light. I shall just sit on the sideline for telcos for now.


    Just a side note, GLP and CityDev's dividends can't beat inflation. Good for capital play but maybe not so good for long-term investment (of course also subjected to one's entry price).


    Tuesday, 3 October 2017

    Peter Lynch and the blue chips

    It's always good to learn something new from blog reading. Those scraps of information are like bread crumbs which can lead me to discover more interesting stuff about investing - to know what I don't know. As the saying goes, danger lies when you don't know what you don't know.

    Stalwart - simi lai?

    "Stalwart is a term popularized by legendary stock picker Peter Lynch to describe a large, well-established company that still offers long-term growth potential. "

    "In addition to a strong balance sheet, one of Lynch’s key measures for a stalwart company is the P/E growth ratio (PEG), which is calculated by dividing the company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio by its earnings growth rate. Lynch determined that PEGs below 1.0 were an indication of an underpriced stock relative to its growth rate. He considered stocks with PEGs below 0.5 to be a real bargain. For dividend-paying companies, he factored in the dividend yield to arrive at a yield-adjusted PEG ratio. Wal-Mart is often cited as an example of Lynch’s stalwart methodology."

    [Source: Stalwart http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stalwart.asp#ixzz4uQvSnJIq]

    哦,P/E还可以这样子用的喔。

    I interpret it as - stalwarts are generally companies with strong moat / competitive edge. Their offerings and business models are either difficult to replicate or monopolizing. As such, it is difficult for newer, smaller cap companies to gain market share from them. 

    However with the rapidly evolving technology and the rise of new business models, it is no surprise that some of these stalwarts may find their offerings getting obsolete if they are unable to keep up with change. Examples were Nokia and Fujifilm.

    -----------------------------------

    Just a fun simulation here based on an old blog post of mine last year - http://rainbowcoin.blogspot.sg/2016/03/4d-market-rules.html

    STI was at 2837. Now STI is at 3246. (Difference +409)

    If I were to buy all the resilient blue chips (highlighted in yellow below) then in 2016, assuming almost equal amount invested per stock, how would my portfolio fare now?


    Time travel to Oct 2017 and
    the results are...

    Shares Price then $ vested Price now $ vested Gain/loss
    Ascendas REIT 4100 2.44 10004 2.66 10906 902
    Capitamall Trust 4600 2.17 9982 2 9200 -782
    Jardine Cycle 300 39.55 11865 39.82 11946 81
    SATS 2600 3.91 10166 4.66 12116 1950
    SPH 2600 3.92 10192 2.71 7046 -3146
    Thai Bev 13000 0.77 10010 0.9 11700 1690
    Wilmar 3100 3.21 9951 3.2 9920 -31
    TOTAL 72170 72834 664

    Negligible capital gain. Becos one rock sunk the ship. Image result for defeated emoticon


    Could have done better by buying the STI ETF!
    (Those who bought the banks really hit home run. LOL)


    Moral of the story

    Do not buy simply based on the company's resilience in a down market. Do look at the company's earning prospect, forward price trend and overall sentiments.


    How many of the blue chips are still stalwarts? It's for you to decipher.



    *** Disclaimer: I have no vested interest in the above stocks.
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