25 March 2020

It's mad rush for gold

The price of gold has gone bonkers again. 

Source: Saxo

Sold down finally over?

Ah, I have missed the boat again. 🤦


It's rare to have gold rallied together with stocks. Hope on a new stimulus deal performed magic on the US market again tonight but obviously there's a big faction still believing in parking money in the safe assets. They are the realists. (And they know QE means...)


Stimulus can oil the wheels but the force that turn the wheel is human spending. If there's barriers to spending then the flood of money will be dammed instead of flowing. 


So what can overcome this? 
When we stop seeing spikes in covid-19 cases and cities release their lock-down. 


When will we see a decline in covid? 
When there's global adoption of proven treatment(s) against the virus / successful manufacturing of a vaccine for it / the virus eventually die-off due to success in quarantine measures or herd immunity developed.


How close are we to seeing the wheels turn?
Even if the wheels do turn, it may be some time before the businesses pick up to the level of past year's glory. Risk and fear take time to dissipate.


A good read from Of dollars and data blog -
How the coronavirus crash is different from 2008
"Sometimes we have to accept that history is no longer a useful guide.
The fact is that I can crunch all the correlations, produce all the plots, and spawn all the simulations that I want, yet I will be no closer to understanding what comes next."


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